Hubris balancing: classical realism, self-deception and Putin's war against Ukraine

Abstract Why did Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Structural realists regard it as a preventive war with strategic rationale response NATO's eastward expansion. However, many scholars suggest, Putin's decision-making is riddled various irrationalities, which can be better framed overbalancing and the classical realist concept of ‘hubris’. Lawrence Freedman others argue that key explaining applying self-deception evolutionary psychology, scientific foundation hubris realism. Thus, Freedman's argument others' general theses cause overconfidence led introduction into realism solve puzzle international affairs. Thereby, novel balancing ‘hubris balancing’ was developed: irrationally aggressive exceeds what achievable practice. There are three causal pathways (cognitive, emotional social) ideal types: overconfidence, anger nationalism. As plausibility probe, illustrated by analysing decision wage against Ukraine. The result shows that, logic suggests, driven towards western liberalism, decided driving exclusive